Following the massive subscription orders that exceeded several times the public offering amount for Antropic's initial public offering (IPO), forecasts suggest that there could be an additional demand of up to 1.9 billion dollars (approximately 25 trillion won) after the listing. This is due to the anticipated large inflow of funds from index funds that follow major stock indices, as Antropic is expected to be included in major indices early. This situation could potentially recreate the sharp price surge that occurred during the listing of SpaceX in June.
Reuters reported on the 12th (local time) that Antropic is expected to be included in at least six major stock indices, including the Nasdaq 100, within five to 15 days after its listing. Intropic, a UK-based index analysis company, estimated that the purchase demand from funds following these indices could reach about 1.9 billion dollars, which is approximately 30% of Antropic's expected general public offering amount of 6.44 billion dollars.
Previously, even large companies took several months to be included in major stock indices after their listing. However, the situation has changed as major index providers such as Nasdaq have allowed the early inclusion of ultra-large new listing companies. ETFs and index funds that follow the indices must purchase shares of the listed company in proportion to their inclusion weight. This creates a structure where purchase demand occurs regardless of the company's performance or stock price forecast.
As a result, professional investors such as hedge funds are also expected to move to secure shares before the index inclusion. Carsten Hesse, head of index events at Berenberg, noted that Antropic's IPO is very similar to SpaceX's, and predicted that the same index inclusion effect would occur within the first 15 days after the listing.
Particularly, Antropic is expected to have only about 6% of its total issued shares available for trading immediately after the listing. This is due to the high demand for purchase funds and the limited number of tradable shares, which could lead to significant initial price volatility.
In fact, SpaceX's stock price rose about 50% within three trading days after its listing in June, driven by the buying demand from index funds and individual investors. However, the stock price later declined as the time for the initial investors and employees to sell their shares approached.
Antropic is also expected to see a surge in initial stock purchase demand, but it differs from SpaceX. Antropic allows some employees to sell their shares on the first day of the listing. Additionally, shares issued through a separate private placement of 2.6 billion dollars, involving companies such as Google, NVIDIA, and AMD, do not have mandatory holding periods. As a result, both the purchase demand from index inclusion and the selling volume from existing shareholders could impact the stock price simultaneously.
The investment enthusiasm before the listing has also been intense. Bloomberg reported on the 11th, citing a source, that Antropic had secured subscription orders exceeding several times its planned share sales. Although the exact oversubscription ratio was not disclosed, it was reported that the orders from institutional investors seeking to secure large volumes of shares were leading the demand.
Antropic has set a desired public offering price of 70 to 78 dollars per share and plans to sell approximately 82.5 million shares. The general public offering amount is up to 6.44 billion dollars, and when combined with the separate private placement of 2.6 billion dollars, the total share sale amount could reach up to 9.04 billion dollars, surpassing the final offering amount of 8.57 billion dollars that SpaceX recorded in June. General public offering cannot reach SpaceX's records.
The enterprise value is lower for Anthropic. Under the fully diluted basis, Anthropic's target enterprise value is up to about $14 billion, which is lower than the enterprise value of about $17.7 billion at the time of SpaceX's initial public offering.
Significant demand from individual investors is also expected. According to Reuters, market research firm Banda Research predicted that the amount of individual investor net buying on the first day of Anthropic's IPO would reach about $250 million. That's more than double the $118 million recorded by SpaceX during its IPO.
Anthropic is currently conducting investor fundraising with the goal of listing on the NASDAQ on the 19th, and its stocks are expected to be traded under the ticker symbol 'ANT'. The final offering price will be determined on the 18th.
Reporter Park Chan, cpark@aitimes.com
