Will France Win the 2026 World Cup? Here Are Predictions From 5 AIs

The 2026 World Cup is in full swing. Ahead of the first matches, we asked several artificial intelligence systems to make a complete prediction of the results of all the matches.The purpose of the experiment is to determine which of the generative AIs came closest, and how it managed to hit the nail on the head.

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Also read: 2026 World Cup – how to add the full match schedule to your calendar (in 3 clicks)

ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Perplexity and Vibe predictions

We focused on the most popular solutions on the current market, namely ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Perplexity, and Vibe from Mistral AI. Note that all the tests below were carried out using the standard, free versions of the AIs. We did not use the paid versions, which generally offer more power and more sophisticated responses. We first asked the chatbots to give their predictions for the group stages, before asking for their forecasts for the final stages, including the result of each match. Finally, we obviously asked the chatbots which country would emerge as the winner of the competition.

Who will win the 2026 World Cup? AI predictions

ChatGPT backs France and Mbappé

To begin with, we of course asked ChatGPT, OpenAI’s ubiquitous AI. The chatbot predicts semifinal matchups between Brazil and Spain, and France and Norway. For ChatGPT, the World Cup final will pit France against Spain. The French team would emerge victorious from the match, scoring two goals against the Spaniards. The competition’s top scorer would be none other than Kylian Mbappé, with a total of 9 goals. Without being asked, ChatGPT justifies its answer by pointing out that “France is one of the teams most likely to reach the final”, that Mbappé has “already won the 2022 World Cup Golden Boot with 8 goals”, and that “bookmakers currently list him as the leading favorite for the 2026 Golden Boot”.

Gemini also backs France and Mbappé

In response to the same questions, Gemini, Google’s AI, predicts semifinals pitting Brazil against France and Spain against Portugal. Once again, Les Bleus would be in the final. This time, they would face Portugal. Thanks to the « offensive firepower of Les Bleus », France would win 2-1. Like ChatGPT, Gemini believes that Kylian Mbappé will score a total of 9 goals during the tournament, particularly in the final against the Portuguese team.

Claude expects Spain to win

Next, we asked Claude, the chatbot from the Anthropic startup, without changing the reasoning settings. Claude believes the semifinals are likely to be France–Argentina and Germany-Spain. In the final, France would face Spain… but the French team would lose to the Spanish team. It would be Spain, described as the best team in the world right now, that would win the competition. It would be Lamine Yamal, with a total of 8 goals during the Cup, who would be responsible for Spain’s victory and establish himself as the leading scorer, ahead of Mbappé.

Perplexity backs Spain and does not believe in France at all

We also asked Perplexity for its opinion by using its own AI model, Sonar 2.More focused on research than its competitors, Perplexity explains that it drew on a series of sources “forecast simulations and lists of matches supposedly based on ongoing qualifying rounds”.

Unlike the other AIs, Perplexity predicts that France will quickly bow out to Argentina in the round of 32. The semifinals would feature Colombia vs Brazil and the Netherlands vs Spain. The final would see Brazil face Spain, with Spain winning. With six goals, Kylian Mbappé would be the tournament’s top scorer, ahead of Harry Kane.

Mistral backs a Brazilian victory

Finally, Vibe, Mistral AI’s assistant, formerly known as Le Chat, was asked to share its predictions. While acknowledging that “injuries, current form, and performances in knockout matches can change everything”, Vibe predicts semifinals of Brazil vs Argentina and Portugal vs Germany. In the final, Brazil would face Portugal, with the Brazilians winning. As for the French team, the French AI believes that Les Bleus will be eliminated in the quarterfinals by Argentina (2-1). With seven goals, Mbappé is once again projected to be the top scorer of the World Cup.

Neymar vs Harry Kane: the tiebreaker question for ranking the AIs

All the AIs except Claude agree that Mbappé will emerge as the leading scorer of the competition.To distinguish between them, we decided to ask the chatbots to forecast the number of goals that will be scored by Neymar and Harry Kane, two players who are among the biggest names in world football. For the AI, this is obviously a rather “tricky” question.

Kane is a renowned striker on whom his team’s entire hopes rest, while Neymar is an icon whose presence on the pitch remains at the discretion of his coach. They are two different profiles. By querying the AI on this point, we hope to have a little more data to distinguish between them. Here are the results highlighted by the chatbots:

How many goals for Neymar and Harry Kane?

Total number of goals forecast by each AI throughout the 2026 World Cup.

We will, of course, have to wait for the start of the competition, scheduled for Thursday, June 11, 2026, before we can begin to see whether the AIs we queried were right. Depending on the results, we’ll see which AI is on track to determine the winner of the 2026 World Cup.

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